DFV forest fire expert Dr. Ulrich Cimolino gives advice for June and the wildfire season 2023

DFV forest fire expert Dr. Ulrich Cimolino gives the following information on the vegetation fire situation in view of the weather conditions to date and those expected up to June on the occasion of recent fires.

- Previous weather conditions and the resulting general risk situation in the vegetation
- Expected weather conditions based on the long-term forecast
- Basic dangers when the weather conditions change
- Recommendations on behavior for the population
- Recommendations for fire brigades

read this article in german on feuervehrverband.de

Photo Credit: Photo of Dr. Ulrich Cimolino by Dr. Michael Rüffer/Feuerwehr-Magazin.

Previous weather conditions and the resulting general risk situation in the vegetation

After the winter season of 2022/2023 , which was initially too dry and too warm in large parts of Germany, then mostly too wet and too cold for a long time, spring followed, which brought heavy precipitation almost everywhere and temperatures that were still rather cold in a long-term comparison. Because that was the case, the near-surface water reservoirs could be refilled sufficiently. This can be seen clearly in the Helmholtz drought monitor.

The fires are currently on the increase, which certainly has something to do with the somewhat warmer temperatures of the last few days, little or no rain and the increasing pressure to have free time or ongoing work in fields and forests. The areas with dry remains of vegetation on the ground (twigs, dry heather plants, etc.) are quickly dry again in the sun after rain and can then be easily ignited with a little wind from every cigarette.

The grassland fire index is therefore somewhat more critical than the forest fire risk index practically across the board. The risk of fires in deeper soil layers (dry moors, humus layers with high organic components) is currently rather low due to the soil moisture in this area.

Expected weather conditions based on the long-term forecast

The long-term forecast of the European Weather Forecast System (EFFIS) currently extends to the end of June 2023. So far, the course has appeared far more "normal" than, for example, 2022. If this happens, it will be rather dry in northern and eastern Germany by mid-June and a little too warm and above all in southern Europe rather more than less rain, while from the 2nd half of June in Germany more "normal" precipitation should occur, with perhaps slightly too warm temperatures.

This will usually mean fewer, but locally more fire hazards than have existed locally in recent years. This depends on many factors, such as actual temperatures and rainfall, dryness of vegetation (residuals), wind, etc.

Basic dangers of changing weather conditions

As you can see from the drought monitor: We still have significant water deficits in the deeper soil layers in large parts of Germany. In order to fill this up, we would need a few more months or even years with breaks and longer "land rain". Any longer dry periods can quickly lead to problems like those we have seen in recent years. At the same time, however, due to the saturation of near-surface storage facilities, any serious regional heavy rain event can quickly lead to local flooding.

Recommendations on behavior for the population

The DFV points out that, especially after a few days of sunshine, the dry plant residues near the ground can easily ignite very quickly!

-  A fire then spreads rapidly downwind and uphill.

- If you suspect a vegetation fire, call the fire brigade on 112.

- Please provide as precise a description of the location and directions as possible; if possible, also with the GPS coordinates from your smartphone.

- If necessary, instruct the first units of the approaching fire brigade so that the source of the fire can be fought more quickly.

- If it is an incipient fire, try to keep it small with a little water or by wiping it out with a damp cloth or a branch, if this is still possible without risk.

No open flames in the forests March - November!

In this context, we would like to point out that it is fundamentally not suitable to make  open fires or smoke in the forest in Germany during the extended summer season, from March 1st to October 31st!

Recommendations for fire brigades

The DFV also issues specialist recommendations for its members on this topic, for example for use in vegetation fires or the use of aircraft for and by the fire brigade.