EV sales are slowing - internal combustion engines, hybrids and hydrogen cars may be advancing again
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Fossil fuel as a main propulsion type in personal transportation will likely be with us a lot longer than 2030. Several large car manufacturers are reporting that EV sales are on their way down. Meanwhile, at least one hydrogen powered car is being launched and new hybrid car models are being planned for release.
Japan's Toyota Motor has cut its electric vehicle production plans for 2026 by a third, according to the Nikkei business daily. This decision makes Toyota the latest automaker to scale back its electric car plans in respons to slowing EV sales momentum.
EV production from Toyota Motors will step back from the planned 1,5 million EVs in 2026, to 1 million, according to Reuters.
Earlier this week, Swedish automaker Volvo Cars abandoned their target of going all electric by 2030. Instead, Volvo expects to still be offering some hybrid models in its lineup at that time.
In the U.S., Ford, General Motors and others have delayed or cancelled new electric models going into production.
According to the CBC, Tesla's quarterly earnings revealed a 9% drop in first-quarter revenue for 2024, making it the company's largest decline since 2012. This unexpected decline has reportedly surprised even the most pessimistic market analysts.
EV sales in South Korea down 45 % - "EV-Phobia" - fear of EV fires- reported as one major reason
In South Korea, EV sales have dropped drastically in 2024. This year, South Korea has also experienced what has been called “EV phobia” spreading due to the Cheongna fire and other fires involving lithium batteries.
According to The Chosun Daily, sales data from January to August this year also indicate a significant slowdown in EV demand in South Korea. Hyundai, the market leader, saw its EV sales from January to August drop around 45% compared to the same period last year, totalling around 26,000 units.
According to Forbes Magazine, EV sales are slowing because buyers want 20-Minute charging times and a 350-Mile / / 560 kms driving range on a single charge, which is not being offered yet.
Although EV sales have risen over the past few years, the expected push for massive EV adoption by 2030 seems to have stalled.
An another indication that EV adoption is slowing, Mercedes-Benz announced in February that it will not meet its 2025 goal of having electric vehicles, including hybrids, account for 50% of all sales.
Hydrogen cars - a new challenge for firefighters
BMW is planning to launch its first hydrogen propelled car in 2028.
BMW is a leading advocate of hydrogen technology among German automakers and has been testing the iX5 Hydrogen, a hydrogen-powered passenger vehicle. It reportedly offers a range of 500 kilometres (310 miles) and can be refuelled in three to four minutes.
Although not necessarily more dangerous than gasoline, hydrogen calls for a a new set of skills, and another type of preparedness for firefighters dealing with this fuel type of fuel.
We have outlined many of these in the recent HyResponder train-the-trainer program, available here on CTIF.org.
EV fires the most uncommon - but hybrids are the most common
Hybrids are popular but are also the most fire prone of all common types propulsion. In 2023, CTIF.org compared diesel, gasoline, electric and hybrid propulsion, based on available research and statistics.
Some researchers found that the fears of lithium-ion battery fires are not necessarily in fair relation to the low frequency of EV-incidents.
In a December 2023 article on Spectrum.ieee.org, a US professor argued that the media has been exciting the fears around fires in electric vehicles - and not placed them in a fair comparison to ICE (gasoline or diesel) powered vehicles.
Paul A. Kohl, a professor at GeorgiaTech’s School of Chemical and Bio-molecular Engineering in Atlanta, said to the site:
“The media don’t treat EVs and ICEs with equal footing, because gasoline is not sensational anymore.”
Available statistics show that conventional vehicles catch fire more often than fully electric vehicles. Yet, argues Professor Kohl, when fires occur which "involve more than one electric vehicle — whether car or scooter or e-bike — the media and authorities have recently revealed a tendency to rush in to blame the EV".
In February 2023, CTIF.org wrote an article which outlines some of the general statistics of EV fires vs ICE fires. (ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)
In an article on Autoweek.com from October, 2022, researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the US National Transportation Safety Board.
The researchers found that hybrid vehicles were the most prone to catch fire, followed by gasoline vehicles.
According to the compiled statistics, hybrid vehicles had the most fires per at 3474.5 per 100,000 sales.
There were 1529.9 fires per 100,000 for gas vehicles and just 25,1 fires per 100,000 sales for electric vehicles.
Illustration above: Symbol for an EV charging parking stall painted on pavement. Rawpixel Public Domain Image.