El Niño could cause 2024 to be the hottest year on record in many regions
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The forecast from a climate model suggests that several regions, including the Caribbean, the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, as well as parts of Alaska and the Amazon, will experience their hottest 12-month period on record this year, reports The New Scientist.
This projection is attributed to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, which typically influences global weather patterns and can lead to warmer temperatures in certain regions.
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In November 2023, The World Meteorological Organization wrote that the ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
Michael McPhaden, a team member at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory in Seattle, Washington, highlights the elevated risk of extreme weather events in these areas as a result of the predicted temperature anomalies. Extreme heat can have severe consequences, including heatwaves, droughts, and impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and human health.
“These are the places where there will be an elevated risk of extremes, and these extremes are really damaging,” he says to The New Scientist.
The forecast underscores the importance of monitoring and understanding climate patterns such as El Niño, which can have far-reaching impacts on regional climates and weather conditions. Preparedness and adaptation efforts will be crucial for communities and authorities in these regions to mitigate the potential risks associated with the projected temperature increases and associated extreme weather events.
“They are damaging to human health and they increase the risks of wildfire. And in the oceans, they increase the risk of marine heatwaves, which are damaging to marine ecosystems, fisheries and corals,” McPhaden says.
During the opposite current, the La Niña phase, cold water spreads across the Pacific, absorbing heat and reducing surface temperatures, contrasting with the heat accumulation during El Niño.
Researchers, including McPhaden, used a computer model to forecast global heat distribution, factoring in El Niño, aerosol pollution, and volcanic eruptions.
Their analysis predicts a significant temperature increase for July 2023 to June 2024, likely reaching 1.1 to 1.2°C above the 1951 to 1980 average. This corresponds to 1.4 to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial benchmark.
However, recent temperature data suggests even higher temperatures, exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. The ongoing El Niño has already shattered temperature records, particularly in tropical regions, indicating its intensity.
Photo Credit: (Cover Photo Above) Wikipedia Commons License
Sea Surface anomalies across the Earth in August 2023 during the 2023-2024 El Niño event.
31 August 2023
Source
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/sst-global-monthly-difference-average
Author
NOAA